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Some people predict that the U.S. ocean shipping price will break through the prefix 2 in the future, I am doubtful..

The US shipping price has quietly risen to the top with some people's hindsight and some people's foresight. Since last year's epidemic, the US shipping market has not been as calm as usual, especially after the ship grounding incident, which indirectly pushed the waves behind.

Impact of Suez Canal ship grounding incident

The Suez Canal ship stranding incident had a significant impact on the shipping price of shipping to the east coast of the United States in the second half of April. The shipping space to the east coast of the United States in April was significantly tighter than before, and the shipping price of the east coast of the United States rose sharply. Due to the continued shortage of containers, the shipping price rose again. In view of the situation in the east coast of the United States, many sellers (cargo owners) began to ship goods to the west coast of the United States, And then to the east or other inland parts of the United States.

Taking the port of Los Angeles as an example, the container availability index of the port has reached as high as 0.9. The port of Los Angeles has experienced "the craziest March". The port's imports are pouring in like a tide. In March alone, the record is more than any previous month, and the traffic volume in April also remains at the peak level. Container ships are expected to stay in the port until June.

Shipping status:

At present, maritime transportation is faced with many problems, such as difficult booking, serious port congestion, unstable shipping schedule, container dumping and so on. In addition, air express is also overloaded, and the international logistics capacity is very difficult. Shipping companies such as Meisen, Yixing and Wanhai have repeatedly raised their prices in the past two weeks.

COSCO Haikong

Take COSCO Haikong as an example to verify the popularity of the shipping and container market

Due to the continuous sharp rise of shipping price and the sharp increase of market demand, COSCO Haikong, which mainly deals in container and bulk cargo terminal handling, has achieved good results in 2020 and the first quarter of 2021.

In 2020, it will achieve a profit of 9.927 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.373 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 449.69%. In the first quarter of 2021, it will achieve a net profit of 15.45 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5201%. It is not difficult to see from these data that the popularity of the shipping market has reached an unprecedented state.

I haven't seen such an environment in 40 years

Recently, the CEO of Matson said: "in nearly 40 years of working in this industry, I have never seen such a situation. International trade routes have been operating at full capacity, and the supply chain is generally crowded, which has brought pressure to US ports, docks, railway freight yards and warehouses... Creating a very challenging business environment."

"In many cases, we have seen that other shipping companies engaged in trans Pacific trade do not have enough containers to ship. We have also seen other shipping companies continue to cancel their voyages because they are really unable to get their ships back on time for the next shipment. "

He also predicted that "serious congestion, especially in Los Angeles, California and other ports and their surrounding areas, is likely to continue. Due to port backlog and market demand for replenishment, prices will remain high, and shipping may still be difficult for the rest of this year."

According to the analysis of some shipping companies, the demand kinetic energy corresponding to the strong export in Q1 of this year has just begun. From the perspective of market sentiment and demand kinetic energy, the export in the first quarter of this year is far from the "high point", and then the shipping market will still maintain a "tight balance", which is not alarmist.

As the shipping demand will last longer and the freight volume and freight rate will rise, it will bring objective profits to the shipping companies. The successful experience will make the shipping companies tend to continue to control the transport capacity, so as to continue to enjoy the dividend brought by the high freight rate.

It's better not to make predictions come true.

Therefore, in 2021, the container market is expected to maintain a good momentum, and some people boldly predict that the price of Mason may break through the prefix 2 in the near future. If so, it's too terrible, it's so terrible, but who can guarantee that it won't happen?

Of course, for Amazon sellers, there is no need to panic too much, because no matter what we can't control, no matter how worried and concerned, it won't help. For such a market, it shows that the wind vane of the market is good, that is, the export is still the trend in the next few years, and the national policy also encourages and supports the booming development of cross-border e-commerce.

At the same time, we should also make good preparations for the opening of funds. The extension of shipping delivery time is a test of cash flow. For the preparation plan, it is better to advance accordingly to avoid the shortage of goods due to the extension and delay of time limit, especially in the preparation of goods for peak season and festival promotion.

Finally, I hope the market will recover as soon as possible, so that the spirit will not be so tense.



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